So, before I begin, I'll post my now out-of-date Thesis proposal (more on that later).
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Assessing Vulnerability To and
Emergency Management Methods for Extreme Cold in Khorogh, Tajikistan
Abstract
Tajikistan
is home to some of the world’s most remote mountain villages in the Pamir
Mountains, and with an average elevation of 3000m and a continental interior
location, the country is prone to high temperature variability throughout the
year, including extreme cold in the winter.
This former Soviet outpost is also the poorest of the 15 former Soviet
Socialist Republics, has suffered severe infrastructural battering from the
fall of the USSR and years of subsequent civil war, and sees regular
fluctuations in its energy and food production capacities. There exist bodies of research within several
fields including agriculture, energy, health, hazards and disasters, NGO-led aid,
and the potential of GIS and Remote Sensing within this region. However, there is little research to-date
focusing specifically on mitigation techniques for extreme cold weather in the
remote Gorno Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO). Essentially all research reviewed pertaining
to the mountain communities of Tajikistan depict a cycle of poor
infrastructure, rampant resource mismanagement, land degradation, poverty,
critically fragile education and health sectors, a long list of annual
environmental hazards, and alienation, which have rendered the Badakhshan
Region of Tajikistan highly vulnerable to the impacts of extreme cold
weather. The objective of this project
is to first operationalize vulnerability in the context of GBAO,
Tajikistan. The second objective is to perform
a case study by semi-structured interviews with hospital, school, health, and
community staff, village elders, and households within Khorog to identify
vulnerability to, and emergency management methods for extreme cold weather
within the GBAO. It is hypothesized that
the GBAO is highly vulnerable to extreme cold, resulting from both proximity to
a hazardous area, as well as socially-driven vulnerability. It is also hypothesized that the GBAO
constitutes repetitive, ineffective, and unsustainable mitigation and
preparation methods for extreme cold weather.
To test these hypotheses, a representative sample of the capital city of
the GBAO, Khorog, will be selected.
Social science research will then be carried out across the city in the
form of semi-structured interviews with village elders, hospital, school,
health, and community staff, as well as semi-structured interviews with
households within the city. .
Introduction
The
Central Asian Republic of Tajikistan is one of fifteen Soviet Socialist
Republics (Figures 1, 2). It is 93%
mountainous, straddles the Roof of the World, and lies right along the stomping
grounds of Alexander the Great and Marco Polo.
It is one of five Central Asian Republics along with Kyrgyzstan,
Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, and is bordered by China to the east,
Kyrgyzstan to the north, Uzbekistan to the west, and Afghanistan to the
south. Geographically, Tajikistan is 93%
mountainous with the lowest-lying areas being to the far NW and SW of the
country. The country is dominated
physically by two large west-to-east mountain ranges north of Dushanbe, the
Zeravshan and Fannsky Gorry ranges, with several peaks above 5,000m (MSL), and
extending from the Pamir Knot by the mighty Pamir Mountains, an extension of
the Himalayan Range of Nepal, China, and Kashmir (India/Pakistan, contested),
and of the Tien Shan Range of western China, all to the east, with numerous
peaks in excess of 7,000m (MSL), the tallest of which, Ismoil Somoni Peak, at
7,495m (MSL) is the highest in all of the former Soviet Union.
Ethnically,
Tajikistan is greatly divided amongst Tajiks, Uzbeks, Russians, Kyrgyz, Turkic,
and Gharmi peoples, and Pamiri peoples in the Pamir Mountains. The country has seen extensive turmoil since
the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, marked by civil war along ethnic,
religious, and political lines, drug trafficking and threatened spread of Islamic
Fundamentalism in the south beckoning the use of Russian military force,
natural disasters, large-scale poverty, and a humanitarian crisis gaining the
attention of the United Nations.
Climatically,
the Zeravshan River Valley and greater Dushanbe region to the south experience
a hot summer continental climate with temperatures soaring above 40C at times,
while the far west and north experience a Mediterranean climate. The central part of the country, the western
GBAO (and western Pamir Mountains) experience a steppe climate. Eastern GBAO is classified as a desert
climate, with erratic precipitation patterns and orographic rain shadows
(Figure 3).
This author has lived in Tajikistan for over 4 months as
a teacher, and has seen firsthand the deficiencies of the entire country,
particularly mountainous communities, to extreme cold, as well as the
subsequent necessity for further research into emergency management techniques
for, and vulnerabilities to this hazard.
There are several reasons this is important. High fuel and food insecurity is exacerbated
by extreme cold. Tajikistan is also
prone to a long list of natural hazards, among which are avalanche,
earthquakes, flood, and mass wasting.
These hazards, when realized as disasters, and coupled with extreme cold
during winter months, can lead to a relatively new form of crisis in the
international community known as a ‘compound disaster’, meaning that when these
disasters do occur, emergency response efforts can be further complicated by
extreme cold weather. It is necessary to
identify the most effective methods of dealing with extreme cold both in everyday
life, and more importantly during times of crisis. Most of the nation is prone to electricity
outages, forcing them to rely on non-electrical means of warmth for much of the
year in remote mountainous regions. This
and deficiencies in several other primary sectors calls for a comprehensive
approach to identification of, and rectification of deficiencies in mitigation
and preparation methods for extreme cold in rural mountainous communities
before emergency management methods for other natural disasters occurring
during winter months in these remote areas can be truly effective.
Literature
Review
Tajikistan
is a heavily mountainous Central Asian country which is extremely vulnerable to
natural hazards, among which are earthquakes, mass wasting, floods, avalanche,
and extreme cold, particularly within mountain communities. Research within Tajikistan has been limited
for several reasons, including civil war, reconstruction, poor economy, and
poor academic scholarship promotion.
There has been limited research conducted, however, and in instances,
collaboration among Soviet and western scientists, particularly during the time
of The Great Game, the strategic competition between the Russian and British
empires for supremacy in Central Asia during the 19th century(Yablokov,
2001). Research was not easily conducted
during and immediately after the fall of the USSR. There were, however, scientists interested in
developing, implementing, and furthering social science research within Russia
and other former SSR’s (Porfiriev et. al., 1996).
For
Tajikistan, the mid-1990’s saw the country gripped in the clutches of a brutal
civil war fought over religion, politics, and ethnicity. Hundreds of thousands of people were
displaced during the Soviet era, and return migration took place after the
collapse of the Soviet Union, seeing the particular return of Pamiri people to
the Pamir Mountains region within the GBAO.
With this return migration also came a return, albeit slow and marginal,
to the indigenous way of life for many of these mountain people(Deng,
1996).
The
first component of this project deals with operationalizing vulnerability in
the context of GBAO, Tajikistan. Vulnerability
can take on many definitions, several aspects, and can be measured by a number
of methods(Cutter, 1996). Vulnerability
is essentially the potential for loss, and is a primary factor to consider when
forming mitigation strategies for natural hazards. Tajikistan is subject to a multitude of
natural hazards, among which are floods, earthquakes, avalanche, and mass
wasting. The Pamir Mountains also
regularly experience temperatures below -25C in the winter. With the multitude of hazards with which the
country must deal, and with critically fragile infrastructure, extreme cold can
both further propagate negative impacts from other hazards, as well as hamper
response and recovery efforts. The
combination of one hazard with another is a relatively new field of research
termed “compound disaster”.
More
research on the concept of compound disasters was conducted in the aftermath of
an event in the winter of 2007-2008 in Tajikistan(Kelly, 2009). Drought and subsequent decreased water
supplies for hydroelectric sources, increasing fuel and food prices coupled
with decreasing supplies of both, and lack of investment in infrastructure,
health care, and education in Tajikistan all combined with an extremely cold
winter which saw temperatures remain below freezing for well over a month in
Dushanbe, which is around 900m above MSL in elevation, well below the national
average, to create a disastrous situation beckoning the attention of the
international humanitarian community.
Collaboration with the Tajik government and gaining access to government
data and documents proved difficult, both because of the government’s fear of
the latter reflecting negatively on the government and because of the
government’s refusal to recognize the situation as critical.
This new
type of “compound disaster” was new and as such very difficult to define by the
international community. This made
effective logistical and communication operations difficult, especially in the
Pamir Mountains. 24-hour electricity
cut-offs, road blockage, poor harvests, abnormally large snowfall amounts,
damaged water, health, and hygiene infrastructure, and poor hazard awareness
were all issues faced by the international community early in 2008 when the
United Nations launched a Flash Appeal(United Nations, 2008). One of the results of this appeal was the
realization that while Tajikistan is one of the most vulnerable countries on
earth to natural hazards, its lack of comprehensive mitigation and preparation
methods for extreme cold weather, particularly in remote mountainous regions of
the country, places it at even higher risk of catastrophic nation-wide failure
of basic services, including education and medical care. Both education and medical care suffered
during the winter of 2007-08, as many hospitals were forced to release patients
under care due to lack of facility heating, clean water, access, and resources. The same was true for most rural schools, as
90% of which are estimated to have no functioning heating system, students and
teachers were unable to sufficiently heat schools for operation, although it is
not the official policy of the Tajik government to close schools due to lack of
heating in winter. While rural
communities in the Badakhshan region commonly experience full electricity
outages, this situation was an example of how, coupled with extreme cold, high
food and fuel insecurity, and scarce resources, a compound crisis can quickly
develop(United Nations, 2008).
Research
on land development, resource conservation, and energy within the mountainous
regions of Tajikistan has been conducted on various scales and for various reasons. Post-Soviet-era development within Tajikistan
has been slow and difficult, particularly in the GBAO. There are a number of reasons for this, including
extensive internal migration within Tajikistan, a decrease or cessation of
food, energy, and infrastructure subsidies following the collapse of the USSR,
civil war, and political alienation(Breu et. al., 2005). Land degradation is a serious problem within
the Pamir Mountains. Sparse and erratic
precipitation patterns, little vegetation, and improper land use can lead to
severe nature- and hum-induced land degradation in the Pamirs. Another issue is the fact that only a very
small percentage of the total land cover in the Pamir Mountains is actually
arable. With very few wooded species
growing in the Pamirs, sources of fuel for heating and cooking are becoming
sparse without subsidies, and new methods will be required in the future(Jansky
et. al., 2006).
A
research study conducted in 2007 focused on conservation issues facing the
Tajik National Park in central Tajikistan(Haslinger et.al., 2007). The GBAO developed a heavy reliance on Soviet
fuel sources during the USSR, and after its collapse experienced an
artificially high population hike due to return migration. Traditional nomadic settlements reflected, to
a large degree, the availability of natural resources in the form of food,
pasture land, water, and livestock. This
way of life was largely abandoned during the Soviet period. This study found three primary issues facing
the park: continued and intensified use of biomass as fuel sources,
inappropriate pasture use, and increased pressure on wildlife, including
endangered species. This research can be
expanded across the Badakhshan region, and employed to identify issues of
extreme cold weather mitigation and management, as with increased cold will
also come an increase in the misuse of these fuel and food sources(Haslinger
et.al., 2007).
In
response to this issue of land degradation, research on possible alternative
fuel and food sources is necessary. From
the onset of Tajikistan’s induction into the Soviet Union, kitchen gardens
consisting of both food and livestock were permitted at the household
level. These were largely extensions of
the home and were used to offset diet deficiencies. At the end of the USSR, surplus food from
kitchen gardens constituted one third of the food sold at local markets, and
played an especially vital role in the lives of rural families(Rowe, 2009).
The GBAO
reliance on resources in the form of food, electricity, and fuels from the
Soviet Union furthered the region’s vulnerability, and at the end of the Soviet
era, the GBAO was left without any answers.
The subsequent years saw rural Tajikistan, having already lost 90% of
its forests to the USSR, rely heavily on local natural resources for energy,
often resulting in severe land degradation, especially in the GBAO with 87% of
its 213,000 inhabitants living in rural areas as of 2003. In 2007, an assessment of the relationship
between rural energy consumption and land degradation in the GBAO was
conducted. It found that often times
with decreased energy supply, there was an increase in energy consumption at
the household level. It also concluded
that as these rural mountainous regions suffer from both chronic energy
scarcity and the use of local biomass as fuel at an unsustainable rate, there
must be a reassessment of the energy scheme of Tajikistan(Hoeck et.al., 2007).
Research
conducted in neighboring Kyrgyzstan in 2009 focussed primarily on the energy
sector of that country. It found several
problems, among which were poor hydroelectric resource management and
unauthorized selling of water to downstream neighboring countries. This study further expanded on the issue of a
lack of investment in national infrastructure from the collapse of the Soviet
Union. It also reviewed the implications
on neighboring countries during these disaster events(Juraev, 2009).
Responses
to extreme weather events, including extreme cold, were discussed in Bratislava
in 2004 at a meeting of the WHO(Meusel et.al., 2004). Recommendations for responses to extreme cold
as a result of this meeting included developing better methods for preventing
morbidity and mortality during extreme cold events, particularly for the
homeless who are at particular risk during extreme cold. Research has also been conducted on the
growing impact of extreme weather events on populations, due primarily not to
an overall increase in frequency of events, but rather to substantial
population increase over a relatively short amount of time, in India. Recommendations from this study were
primarily to increase forecast skill, and the subsequent implementation of
improved forecasts in disaster management(De et. al., 2005).
As the
Badakhshan region began to settle into itself, research and development
continued throughout and beyond the borders of Tajikistan. Afghanistan is an area that is also prone to
similar natural hazards to those found in Tajikistan. Seismic activity is ripe in the region, and
in 1998, the region of Faizabad experienced a powerful earthquake. Adding to the difficulties for humanitarian
relief of dealing with this disaster were the compound issues of poor or
non-existent road networks, cross-national cooperation between Afghanistan and
Tajikistan, and cold weather(Barr, 1998).
This concept of the compounding of issues with regards to natural
disasters was one that was relatively new to both the emergency management and
humanitarian response communities, and one that would require much further
research.
A
similar situation was experienced in Armenia during the 1988 Spitak earthquake
of comparable intensity as the one in Afghanistan. Again, the response and recovery efforts with
this disaster were compounded by other issues, particularly extreme cold
weather(Kelly, 2000). While the initial
hazard was an earthquake, the extreme cold quickly became dominant. The primary concern within a framework of emergency
management immediately following a disaster is the immediate response,
inclusive of, but not limited to medical treatment, food, water, and
shelter. This response phase can,
however, sometimes carry over into the recovery phase. For instance, one issue in dealing with
disasters that occur during times of cool or very cold weather is that the
onset of extreme cold can multiply problems for victims, particularly in terms
of food and water delivery access, proper shelter, and disease prevention. Another very important aspect of dealing with
these types of situations is that issues faced by humanitarian forces in
dealing with extreme cold, whether combined with other hazards or stand-alone,
must be documented, both in terms of problems and solutions to these problems,
otherwise it is difficult for different humanitarian groups not in contact to
learn from previous experiences, such as was the case with the humanitarian
efforts in Bosnia during extreme cold weather in the 20th century.
An examination of the potential utility of GIS and Remote
Sensing in the context of the development of effective, comprehensive emergency
management methods is examined by Cunha, 1998.
Again, the issue of both return migration and high environmental hazard
vulnerability is discussed, specifically the occurrence of high magnitude, low
frequency, and often catastrophic events in mountainous Tajikistan. Specific hazards facing rural mountain
populations are avalanche, mass wasting, and earthquakes. The use of GIS and Remote Sensing in high
mountain regions will undoubtedly prove highly valuable in years to come(Cunha,
1998).
Another
hazard facing the GBAO exists today as a result of a 1911 catastrophic
earthquake-induced landslide in the Pamir Mountains which blocked the Bartang
Murgab River valley and buried the village of Usoi, creating a natural dam,
named the Usoi landslide dam. A lake
began building in behind this dam, rising rapidly for a number of years,
initially as much as 75m/year, and flooded the village of Sarez, hence the lake
is now named Sarez Lake. Should the Usoi
landslide dam fail, it is estimated over five million people would be affected
downstream as far as the Aral Sea in western Uzbekistan. An early detection and warning system has
been developed but its effectiveness or reach is not known to date(Alford,
2000).
In both the case of high mountain remote
sensing and cartography as well as the Sarez Lake EWS, for these measures to be
effective, field social science research must be conducted to better identify
and prioritize the immediate needs in terms of emergency management with
respect to several hazards which can occur during extreme cold weather events.
Tajikistan
currently has several international actors within the country, including the
United Nations, World Food Programme, World Bank, and Red Crescent of
Tajikistan. The Rapid Emergency
Assessment and Coordination Team (REACT) was formed in 2001 jointly by the
United Nations and the Tajik Ministry of Emergency Situations (MoES) in an
effort to create a more efficient and communication-open disaster management
network within the country. REACT has
since been utilized during several events within Tajikistan, and sits alongside
the Lake Sarez Risk Mitigation Project (LSRMP), Tajikistan, a branch developed
to both monitor Sarez Lake and provide an early detection and warning system to
the downstream residents in the event of a dam failure, both under the umbrella
of the MoES(Asian Disaster Reduction Center, 2006). Several other organizations, including the
University of Central Asia, under which falls the Mountain Societies Research
Centre, Focus Humanitarian Assistance, and Aga Khan Foundation all currently
operate in the GBAO under the umbrella of the Aga Khan Development Network
(AKDN), which has been largely responsible for funding both basic necessities
as well as development programmes in the GBAO since the end of the post-Soviet
Tajik civil war.
Methodology
Data sources within
Tajikistan are sporadic and often unreliable.
During the time of the Soviet Union, census and private data were
maintained primarily in Stalingrad (St. Petersburg), Russian SSR. Disclosure of these data both during Soviet
and post-Soviet times has been either marginal or non-existent. After the collapse of the Soviet Union,
Tajikistan was engulfed in a 5-year civil war, which was followed by
totalitarian-style government rule.
Academic encouragement has been severely suppressed up to this
point. For this research project,
in-person social science research methods will be conducted within and around
Tajikistan. There are datasets, however,
maintained by several NGO agencies currently in Tajikistan.
It
is the purpose of this research to assess vulnerability to, and mitigation and
preparation techniques for extreme cold weather in regards to the remote
mountain communities of the GBAO; specifically this assessment will target
certain sectors which previous literature on the target region has shown to be
particularly vulnerable to extreme cold, namely agriculture, energy,
infrastructure, education, health services, water services, and household
heating. Due to the human component of
test subject for this project, IRB approval will be attained prior to
conducting any field research. This
research project will take place in the form of a case study within the GBAO
capital city of Khorogh. GIS will be
used to assess the representativeness of Khorogh for village communities across
the GBAO.
The
research will be conducted in two phases.
First, semi-structured interviews will be conducted with representatives
of several sectors, namely village elders, community leaders, hospital staff,
school staff, and university faculty. A
pre-determined list of questions will be asked among each sector, during each
interview. These questions will be aimed
at identifying commonalities regarding techniques which can prove either useful
or detrimental to mitigation and preparation for extreme cold weather. Second, semi-structured interviews will be
conducted with households within Khorogh in a similar fashion as the
sector-specific phase. Some specific
targets of the questioning for both phases include references to crowding in
homes, venting for interior heating, sources of fuel, electricity supply,
communication between villages, the role of kitchen gardens, specific
mentioning of changes since the compound disaster of 2007-08, winterization of
schools, hospitals, and homes, and the practice of one warm room per
household.
It
is likely that the Badakhshan region of Tajikistan has continued to experience
fuel and food insecurity due to price rises and land degradation, as well as
poor infrastructure and road networks.
With a lack of investment on the part of the Tajik government in
critical infrastructure, it is likely there has been little change in this
situation since the UN Flash Appeal of 2008.
The sudden collapse of the USSR left the Badakhshan region highly
vulnerable to extreme cold weather, and its opposition to the current
government has only further propagated this alienation. Critical sectors such as healthcare and
education have likely continued to suffer from lack of resources and
winterization, and as such remain highly vulnerable to the effects of extreme
cold. Households probably remain very
reliant upon kitchen gardens and unsustainable use of vegetation and cow dung
as fuel sources, as well as practice one-room-heating, perhaps with poor
ventilation. Lastly, at the community
level, sparse population, poor communication, lack of fuel, and degraded road
networks likely render most rural mountain villages in the Badakhshan region
isolated for much of the winter season, during which the risk of extreme cold
is greatest.
References
Alford, D., and Cunha, S.F., and Ives,
J.D., 2000: Mountain Hazards and
Development Assistance: Lake Sarez,
Pamir Mountains, Tajikistan. Mountain Rsch. and Devt., 20, 12-15.
Asian Disaster Reduction Center,
2006: Total Disaster Risk Management
Good Practices 2006 Supplement, 34pp.
Barr, J,
1999: Disaster Response with a
Difference –Afghanistan June 1998. Aust. Jnl. of EM. Mgt., 18, 2-6.
Breu, T., and
Maselli, D., and Hurni, H., 2005:
Knowledge for Sustainable Development in the Tajik Pamir Mountains. Mtn. Rsch. and Devt., 25, 139-146.
Cunha,
S.F.: Hazardous Terrain: The Need for High Mountain Cartography and
Remote Sensing in the Pamir Mountains, Tajikistan CITATION INFORMATION PENDING.
Cutter, S.L.,
1996: Vulnerability to environmental
hazards. Progress in Human Geography, 20,
529-539.
De, U.S., and
Dube, R.K., and Prakasa Rao, G.S., 2005:
Extreme Weather Events over India in the last 100 years. J. Ind.
Geophys. Union, 9, 173-187.
Deng, F., 1996: UN General Assembly Human Rights
Questions: Human Rights Situations and
Reports of Special Rapporteurs and Representatives. Profiles in displacement: Tajikistan/A/51/483, 51 pp.
Haslinger, A.,
and Breu, T., and Hurni, H., and Maselli, D., 2007: Opportunities and risks in reconciling
conservation and development in a post-Soviet setting: The example of the Tajik National Park. Intl.
J. of Biodiv. Sci. & Mgt., 3,
157-169.
Hoeck, T., and
Droux, R., and Breu, T., and Hurni, H., and Maselli, D., 2007: Rural energy consumption and land degradation
in a post-Soviet setting – an example from the west Pamir Mountains in
Tajikistan. Energy for Sust. Devt., 11,
48-57.
Jansky, L., and
Pachova, N.I., 2006: Towards Sustainable
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Envir. Rsch., 10, 99-115.
Juraev, S.,
2009: Energy Emergency in
Kyrgyzstan: Causes and Consequences., No. 5, 6 pp.
Kelly, C.,
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Weather Conditions: An Overview of
Issues and Options. Earthquake Hazard and
Seismic Risk Reduction. Balassanian, S., and Cisternas, A., and Melkumyan,
M., Kluwer Academic Publishers, 21-30.
________,
2009: Field note from Tajikistan:
Compound Disaster – A new humanitarian challenge? Jnl. of
Distr. Risk Stds., 2, 295-301.
Meusel, D., and
Menne, B., and Kirch, W., and Bertollini, R., 2004: Public Health Responses to Extreme Weather
and Climate Events – A Brief Summary of the WHO Meeting on this topic in
Bratislava on 9-10 February 2004. J.
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and Quarantelli, E.L., 1996: Social
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Hazards in Russia. The University of
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Rowe, W.C.,
2009: “Kitchen Gardens’ in
Tajikistan: The Economic and Cultural
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[http://ochaonline.un.org/humanitarianappeal/webpage.asp?Page=1657]. Date of Access: 15 March 2012.
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Figure 3.
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So, that is my former proposal; former, because as of last week, Khorog underwent military action from the central Tajik government in Dushanbe as a result of the killing of a Tajik government official by rebels in Khorog, the capital of the GBAO. Aside from the obvious security threat being just 6 weeks away, I felt the results of my interviews would be skewed in such a way that it is impractical on several levels to conduct this research in GBAO at this time. I'll look to do research there later, once the situation calms itself. Below are a few pictures from the recent fighting over the last week. WARNING: GRAPHIC
Back to my project, in its current form now, I will now be conducting this project in the northwestern part of the country, amidst the Fannsky Gorry mountain range, in a rural village in close proximity to Penjikent, Tajikistan. This is actually a very sensible area to conduct this project, as the severe winter of 2007/2008 was most extreme outside of the GBAO, so this will be a good follow-up to the Tajikistan Flash Appeal issued by the United Nations early 2008 which detailed many of the causes of, and results of the "Compound Crisis" which resulted from the conditions.
I'll post my new proposal over the next week when I finish it. I leave for Dushanbe 4 September via Bali, Kuala Lumpur, and Almaty Kazakhstan.
.RBT